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    Elastic (ESTC)

    ESTC Q4 2025: 25% of $1M+ Clients Use AI, Cautious FY26 Outlook

    Reported on Jun 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$92.03Last close (May 29, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$77.83Open (May 30, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-14.20(-15.43%)
    • Robust AI Adoption: High-value customers are increasingly leveraging AI on the Elastic platform—with 25% of $1M+ accounts already using Elastic for AI workloads and emerging use cases evolving from conversational search to sophisticated, agentic workflows—underscoring a significant growth avenue in the rapidly expanding GenAI market.
    • Effective Go‑to‑Market Transformation: Recent segmentation and territory changes are paying off as evidenced by stronger engagement with enterprise and high-potential mid-market customers, enhanced sales productivity through targeted hiring (including specialized security teams), and a shift toward larger, multi‑use engagements that support future top‑line growth.
    • Strategic Partnership Momentum: New and deepening collaborations with major hyperscalers like AWS, Google Cloud, and NVIDIA are strengthening Elastic’s ecosystem integration, driving joint go‑to‑market initiatives, and positioning the company as a preferred vector database for enterprise applications—increasing both adoption and recurring revenue opportunities.
    • US Public Sector Headwinds: Concerns were raised about pressures in the US public sector, with management extrapolating these constraints across all quarters which could adversely affect overall revenue growth in FY '26 .
    • Conservative Guidance Amid Macro Uncertainty: The guidance provided is notably cautious, reflecting concerns about potential consumption headwinds and broad macroeconomic uncertainties that might limit upside in revenue and margins .
    • Cloud Revenue Growth Concerns: Although cloud revenue is healthy on a normalized basis, Q4 sequential growth was impacted by a shorter quarter (3 fewer days) and flat monthly cloud revenue, raising questions about the sustainability and volatility of this key revenue segment .
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +16% (from $334,999K to $388,432K)

    Strong revenue growth driven by increased subscription and services adoption, building off prior period momentum as the company expanded its customer base and enhanced consumption patterns.

    Subscription Revenue

    +16% (from $310,984K to $361,741K)

    Robust subscription performance reflects effective customer retention and product innovation, with continued growth built upon the previous quarter’s strong figures and market demand for recurring revenue.

    Services Revenue

    +11% (from $24,015K to $26,691K)

    Steady services revenue growth indicates sustained demand for professional support, albeit at a slightly lower pace than subscriptions, suggesting a strategic focus on high-margin subscription services from the prior period.

    Gross Profit

    +18% (from $247,128K to $290,647K)

    Improved profitability arises from better cost management and a favorable revenue mix, as the gross margin benefits more significantly compared to revenue increases, highlighting enhanced cost efficiencies relative to Q4 2024.

    Operating Loss

    Narrowed from $(45,712)K to $(12,020)K

    Significant operational efficiency gains were achieved through strict expense control and improved revenue performance, resulting in a much smaller operating loss compared to the previous period.

    Net Income

    Loss eased from $(41,100)K to $(16,381)K

    Enhanced bottom-line performance is seen in the reduced net loss and improved diluted EPS (from –$0.42 to –$0.16), driven by better operating results and cost reductions relative to Q4 2024.

    Cash Position

    Increased to $731,214K

    Improved liquidity was supported by higher cash generated from operations ($86,979K) and additional positive financing activities ($22,470K), reflecting stronger cash generation and strategic financial management compared to the previous period.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Total Revenue (Quarterly)

    Q1 2026

    $379–$381 million

    $396–$398 million

    raised

    Non‑GAAP Operating Margin (Quarterly)

    Q1 2026

    13.5%

    11.5%

    lowered

    Non‑GAAP Diluted EPS (Quarterly)

    Q1 2026

    $0.36–$0.37

    $0.41–$0.43

    raised

    Total Revenue (Annual)

    FY 2026

    $1.474–$1.476 billion

    $1.655–$1.67 billion

    raised

    Non‑GAAP Operating Margin (Annual)

    FY 2026

    14.7%

    16%

    raised

    Non‑GAAP Diluted EPS (Annual)

    FY 2026

    $1.91–$1.96

    $2.24–$2.32

    raised

    Adjusted Free Cash Flow Margin (Annual)

    FY 2026

    Expected to be a few points above non‑GAAP operating margin

    no prior guidance

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Total Revenue
    Q4 2025
    $379 million to $381 million
    $388 million
    Beat
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Generative AI Adoption

    Consistently highlighted across Q1–Q3 as a major growth engine with strong customer adoption, RAG applications, and initial strategic initiatives.

    Q4 emphasized strong momentum, deepened customer usage with 2,000+ Elastic Cloud customers, and introduced enhanced strategic partnerships (e.g., 5‑year AWS agreement) to accelerate GenAI innovation.

    Consistent and growing – The focus on GenAI remains central, with more robust partnerships and integration details in Q4 indicating deeper market expansion and commitment.

    Sales Execution and Go-to-Market Transformation

    Q1 saw significant execution challenges due to sales segmentation changes causing delays, while Q2 and Q3 demonstrated improvements with better pipeline progression and a focus on enterprise and mid‐market accounts.

    Q4 reported that the segmentation changes are finally paying off with record additions of million-dollar customers, improved productivity, and enhanced targeting aided by internal AI, reflecting a more stable sales process.

    Recovery and improvement – After early disruptions in Q1, corrective actions have resulted in stabilizing and even surpassing previous execution levels by Q4.

    Cloud Revenue Growth and Sustainability

    Q1–Q3 consistently reported robust cloud growth (25–30% YoY) with healthy consumption from enterprise customers but noted typical month-to-month flatness in the self-service segment.

    Q4 grew 23% YoY (normalized mid‑20s growth when adjusted for seasonality) with clear seasonal patterns and a focus on subscription revenue excluding monthly cloud, underscoring a sustainable growth outlook.

    Consistently strong – While growth rates are slightly moderated seasonally in Q4, the overall sustainability remains firm, anchored by enterprise consumption and stable long‑term drivers.

    Enterprise Customer Segmentation and Focus

    Q1 had disruptive segmentation changes affecting deal closures and pipeline, while Q2 and Q3 saw emerging benefits with improved focus on high‑propensity and enterprise segments.

    Q4 saw the segmentation changes paying off with notable expansion in strategic accounts and high‑value customers, reinforcing the focus on enterprise and high‑potential mid‑market segments.

    Turning point to positive momentum – Initial disruptions from Q1 have transitioned to measurable successes in customer segmentation and enterprise focus by Q4.

    Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Integration

    Q1 mentioned a notable Microsoft accolade underscoring early partnership success. Q2 and Q3 did not elaborate on partnerships.

    Q4 introduced several new and deepened partnerships (AWS 5‑year collaboration, enhanced Google Cloud integration, NVIDIA AI Factory plug‑in) reinforcing Elastic’s ecosystem strategy and its positioning as a vector database leader.

    Emerging and intensifying – The breadth and depth of strategic partnerships have significantly increased in Q4, expanding the ecosystem and reinforcing Elastic’s market position.

    Macro-Economic Uncertainty and Conservative Guidance

    Q1 guidance was cautious due to EMEA budget constraints; Q2 also reflected a conservative tone because of consumption fluctuations, and Q3 noted currency headwinds and day‑count effects.

    Q4 guidance remains prudent amid macro uncertainties—particularly extrapolating U.S. public sector pressures—despite strong pipeline visibility, keeping the outlook conservative for FY 2026.

    Persistent caution – Across all periods, there is a steady, conservative approach influenced by macroeconomic factors, with Q4 marking explicit attention to potential headwinds.

    Innovation in AI Workflows and Platform Evolution

    Q1 showcased foundational innovations (Playground, semantic search enhancements, AI‐powered security), while Q2 and Q3 added improvements (advanced quantization, expanded GenAI integration).

    Q4 further advanced platform evolution with enhanced technologies (better binary quantization, deep integrations with NVIDIA and advanced retrieval focus), pushing AI workflows to new performance levels.

    Consistent and accelerating – Innovations continue to evolve, with each quarter building on prior advancements and Q4 demonstrating significant technological integration and performance upgrades.

    Pipeline Conversion and RPO Growth Concerns

    Q1 faced substantial pipeline conversion challenges and lower RPO due to segmentation disruptions, whereas Q2 exhibited recovery with improved wins and sequential gains; Q3 focused on maintaining pipeline momentum.

    Q4 reflects improved conversion with robust pipeline visibility and healthy RPO growth ($1B, 18% YoY), signaling that earlier corrective measures are yielding positive financial metrics.

    Recovery and positive momentum – After significant challenges in Q1, improvements through Q2 and stable pipeline management by Q4 indicate a strengthening conversion process and RPO outlook.

    US Public Sector Dynamics

    Q1 reported no segmentation changes impacting the public sector; limited details in Q2 and Q3, where it was scarcely mentioned.

    Q4 revealed emerging pressure in the U.S. public sector, particularly due to elongated sales cycles in federal civilian agencies, leading to cautious extrapolation for future guidance.

    Emerging concerns – Historically stable, the U.S. public sector is now showing signs of pressure in Q4, prompting a more conservative outlook for this segment.

    Regional Market Dynamics and EMEA Deal Delays

    Q1 disclosed EMEA deal delays due to tighter customer budgets despite solid APJ growth and segmentation challenges in the Americas; Q2–Q3 did not highlight regional issues prominently.

    Q4 focused more on overall strong regional performance with diversified gains across APJ, EMEA, and Americas; specific mention of EMEA delays is absent, suggesting an improvement from earlier challenges.

    Improved regional performance – Whereas EMEA delays were noted in Q1 due to budget constraints, Q4 emphasizes a balanced and strong regional growth, indicating recovery and improved market dynamics across regions.

    1. Guidance Metrics
      Q: Is Q1 guidance more conservative than before?
      A: Management explained that they balanced strong demand signals with macro uncertainty, emphasizing that revenue remains the best measure for performance while supplementing with subscription revenue less monthly cloud and CRPO details.

    2. RAG Adoption
      Q: Will RAG technology endure in enterprise use?
      A: They are confident RAG is here to stay, as real‑time data context is crucial for AI and their vector database uniquely supports evolving enterprise needs.

    3. Cloud Performance
      Q: How did Q4 cloud revenue perform?
      A: Management noted that although Q4 had three fewer days, when normalized, cloud consumption grew in the mid‑20s percent – a strong sign for continued cloud momentum.

    4. Go-to-Market Strategy
      Q: What are the next steps in sales segmentation?
      A: The new segmentation is now settled, with a focus on enterprise and high-potential mid-market customers along with incremental hiring, including security specialists, to drive further growth.

    5. Revenue Mix & Monthly Cloud
      Q: How should we think about revenue mix and monthly cloud?
      A: They clarified that monthly cloud revenue, largely representing SMB business, is expected to remain flat, while enterprise-driven subscription revenue less monthly cloud is the main growth engine.

    6. AI Commitments
      Q: What’s the story with $1M customer AI usage?
      A: Management stated that 25% of the $1M customer cohort is using Elastic for AI, underscoring growing traction and deeper platform engagement among large customers.

    7. Public Sector Impact
      Q: How significant are U.S. public sector headwinds?
      A: They observed headwinds mainly in U.S. federal civilian entities, but other regions and verticals offset this, and such conservatism is factored into the guidance.

    8. Cloud Revenue Components
      Q: Why didn’t cloud dollars add sequentially as expected?
      A: Despite robust AI search demand, the Q4 cloud performance was moderated by the three-day shorter quarter, with normalized growth remaining healthy in the mid‑20s percent range.

    9. Segmentation & Sales Productivity
      Q: How is the new segmentation translating into deal momentum?
      A: Sales now enjoy larger, strategic enterprise deals with enhanced focus from newly added capacity and specialized teams—an approach poised to accelerate future revenue growth.

    10. Security Portfolio Exposure
      Q: Do larger customers use the full product suite?
      A: While precise numbers weren’t provided, management indicated that customers in the $1M cohort typically deploy the full platform across multiple use cases, evidencing strong cross‑sell dynamics.

    11. Monthly Trend Linearity
      Q: Are monthly performance trends stable?
      A: Management observed that month-to-month results have remained largely linear aside from macro pressures in the U.S. public sector, with no notable fluctuations.

    12. Sales Productivity
      Q: Is the sales team operating at peak productivity?
      A: They confirmed that sales productivity remains robust, aided by internal AI tools that enhance targeting and efficiency, ensuring the team’s performance meets expectations.

    Research analysts covering Elastic.